Consumer AI Predictions by Eugenia Kuyda
Eugenia Kuyda (@ekuyda) shares 7 predictions for consumer AI.
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Screenless AI devices will flop
- Phones are primarily for passive consumption, and voice is a poor primary interface (cannot be used alone, requires initiation, no glancing).
- Phones are too powerful to justify another device for feed-based consumption addiction.
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“Always listening” devices won’t work either
- Most of our lives aren’t interesting enough for non-stop recording.
- Important moments (dates, interviews, therapy) are precisely what we won’t record.
- More context can be gained from digital footprints (Gmail, purchases) than out-of-context chats.
- Video recording raises even more social accessibility questions.
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Mini-apps will unlock UGC personal software
- Mini-apps will revolutionize software like short-form video did for content.
- Full apps are hard to build, but describing one idea/flow/screen is easy.
- Onboarding in some apps is so cumbersome it’s faster to build a mini-app, leading to UGC software and the first true consumer super-app in the US.
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By 2030 there will be two big general-purpose AI chatbots
- A ChatGPT-like assistant focusing on knowledge, search, and tasks (predictable, reliable).
- An AI friend focusing on helping you live the best life (agency, surprise, relationship, feels alive).
- They cannot exist in one product due to conflicting needs for predictability vs. agency.
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Performance marketing for apps is dead
- CAC/LTV arbitrage by copycatting successful apps is pushing margins to zero.
- Users buy subscriptions before seeing the product.
- Paid acquisition can be a boost, not a business model.
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The fastest consumer product to reach $1B ARR will be an AI webcam girl
- Once real-time video generation costs drop, this product, with infinite personalization and 24/7 chat, will grow faster than anything seen before.
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Whoever solves AI discovery wins
- Normal people only use blank text input for chat and search, which are command-line interfaces.
- Hundreds of other use cases are locked behind this interface.
- The next big consumer platform will be whoever figures out how to unlock these use cases, showing what AI can do without solely relying on user prompts.
Replies
Ann Bordetsky (@annbordetsky) #4 stands out to me, the idea that we’ll have a productivity agent and a relationship agent to meet different needs, kinda like IQ vs EQ
“One must be reliable. The other must feel alive.” 🎯
Do you think former is more likely to be multiplayer vs latter single player?
Eugenia Kuyda (@ekuyda) I think both are single player first! But second one has a bigger lock in/ higher switching costs
Teng Yan · Chain of Thought AI (@tengyanAI) (6): AI webcam girl. i could see this happen. sex and gambling are the 2 insatiable human needs with huge markets but not talked about publicly
My Notes / Thoughts: